American Missive

ATLANTA— If the state media of Iran can be trusted (which is a big “IF”), then Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has won his country’s election, having received a whopping 66% percent of the vote, with over 60 percent of the ballots being counted.  Unbelievable.   …Where is the Obama Effect?

Heading into this week, true believers of the Obama cult of change were declaring that Barack Obama’s Cairo speech would shape elections in Lebanon and Iran.  The truth (as always) is much murkier.

Lebanon has elected a pro-western coalition, rejecting the hardline Hezbollah alternative.  But while some are claiming that the “Obama Effect” had significant influence on that election, the reality may be that the vote hinged on Lebanese Christians (the swing vote in that country). Reports indicate they voted for the coalition out of fear of an increasingly influential Iran.

Conversely, the election in Iran might be much more telling.  Barack Obama has repeatedly called for that country to unclinch its fist and open dialogue with the west.  The country is suffering through a miserable economy, with high unemployment and inflation topping 15 percent, while being led by a fool who is destracted with threatening Israel and building a nuclear bomb. I could understand them wanting change.

Barack Obama has extended an olive branch directly to the Iranian people. But the people seem to be rejecting it out-right.  Rather than choose a moderate, they are re-electing a militant, anti-semite with a deep-seated hatred towards the United States.   Granted, their perceptions of Mr. Obama’s overtures are probably clouded by the near totalitarian control of that country’s media excerpted by the ruling mullahs.  But it is nonetheless interesting that their views of America have not changed since the Cairo speech, with only 29 percent of the country having a positive view of our country.

Barack Obama’s supporters, and many of his staff, genuinely believe that on the strength his heritage, his charisma, and his openness to foreign cultures, Barack Obama can change the world.

I am not with them.

I believe the middle east is interested to hear Mr. Obama say the things he is saying.  But before long, the moderates will demand that those words be put into actions.  And the actions they will demand will likely be unpalatable to the American public- hand-cuffing Mr. Obama and ruining any chance of change.  The hard-liners will never change, and I believe they will see Mr. Obama as weak and seek to exploit his weakness.

I hope here that I am wrong.  I would love to believe that Barack Obama’s openness can truly bring change in the region.  If it did, I would welcome being wrong.  I just don’t think it will.  The differences between the middle east and the west may be too big to bridge in so short a period of time.