Examining the Market Trends Since 1992

UPDATED (2009 02 03): A new updated graph has been added to this missive.

LONG BEACH— What happened to all those government surpluses?

Bush and his tax cuts can’t be the only reason for a loss of surplus tax dollars in the hands of the government.

Below is a graph showing the normalized market values of the NASDAQ and DOW JONES. What is most clearly visible in this graph is the collapse of the NASDAQ. The collapse which occured prior to Bush taking office.

Normalized Market Values from 1992 to 2009

 By using a five month sliding window we can smooth over the monthly ups and downs to see a smoother curve of the market trend lines. Below is a chart of the NASDAQ, DOW JONES, and Home Price Index all of which have been indexed to 1992 and averaged over the five month window. The NASDAQ bubble is still prominant in the center of this chart. The housing bubble is also visible, though not as pronounced as the NASDAQ bubble.

Indexed Market Values Over a 5 Month Sliding Window

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About TennesseePaul
Tennessee Paul is a happily married Physicist living in Raleigh, North Carolina. He began his professional career in real estate market analysis, building complex algorithms for market forecasting and trends, moving from there into retirement banking. Currently he is back in the field of physics working on semiconductors. In addition to physics he is a serious baseball fan and follower of the Atlanta Braves. Along with baseball, he enjoys movies, music, and politics and is a registered independent. He has conservative leanings founded in his Christian faith.

One Response to Examining the Market Trends Since 1992

  1. These are very interesting chartes. So I guess what you are saying here is that the Clinton surpluses were bolstered by tax revenues generated from the buying and selling of equities during the latter years of his presidency? That’s what I’ve read. It was that, coupled to a lesser extent with his digging his sweaty paws into the Social Security surpluses.

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