American Missive

ATLANTA— In the most lopsided victory this decade, Mr. Obama turned on its head an old axiom in American politics- that the “most liberal” candidate can never win.   Adlai Stephenson, George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry – all of these men were viewed as very liberal.  And all were beaten (and many obliterated) in the general election.  But not Mr. Obama.   Does Mr. Obama’s resounding victory imply a change in the political dynamic of America?  I don’t think so.  And I think there are some very quick ways Mr. Obama could destroy any “mandate” he has built with his victory over John McCain.

The number one reason I believe this does not represent a change in the political dynamic is that John McCain was winning this election before Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September.  Can you believe that? Around that time, the Real Clear Politics average of polls showed Mr. McCain with a slight advantage in the national poll and even or ahead in electoral college votes.  Shocking!  And all of this despite the state of the economy (which has been bad all year), the unpopularity of George Bush and the Iraq war, and the vastly pro-Obama news coverage.  To me, that John McCain ever led in this campaign indicates a significant chunk of this country still identifies with conservative values. This is further reinforced by a recent ”Battleground Poll” on the matter, which indicates as of October 13, 2008 that a whopping 60% of the country considers itself conservative.

So why has Barack Obama won?  Well, I think we first need to look at why John McCain lost.  Mr. McCain lost because of the economic turmoil that began with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.  That turmoil brought George Bush back to the forefront of the news cycle and reminded America about a presidency that few now look favorably upon.  Further, Mr. McCain failed miserably in addressing the economic crisis during his campaign.  I think the election was an expression of extreme frustration with the current economic malaise.  I think it was also a referendum on Republicans and reflected a general anger at the way George W. Bush’s eight years played out. 

Now, to his credit, Mr. Obama ran an extremely effective and efficient campaign. But I believe Mr. Obama won because he was not a Republican and not George Bush.  He won because he performed well in televised debates and his more radical views were hidden or obscured by his campaign, the media and the volatile economy.   He did not win because of his liberal voting record and the liberal policies he hopes to pursue.

Despite all this, my guess is that most liberals will interpret Mr. Obama’s rout as a mandate for many of their more aggressive policy positions.  In fact, I believe that Mr. Obama himself will interpret it this way. I have believed throughout this election that should he win, Mr. Obama would take the White House decidedly to the left.  And I believe Mr. Obama could completely destroy his “mandate” if he does so.  If Mr. Obama pursues any of the following policies, as he has promised, then he may divide America in a way not even George Bush was able to do. 

1. Begin a precipitous, hasty withdrawal from Iraq, largely exiting the country in 16 months.  Despite the war’s unpopularity, this view did not have extremely broad appeal in  the electorate during the campaign- many thought it was too aggressive. Because of this, Mr. Obama would occasionally shift off this view or downplay it.  Nonethless, Mr. Obama put himself in a box on Iraq.  He either has to pull out to satisfy his anti-war base, or he has to follow what I believe is a more sensible position (akin to Mr. Bush’s and Mr. McCain’s): gradually withdraw over the course of a few years, in accordance with facts on the ground.  My guess is he will sense a mandate for his withdrawal plans and thus pursue them.  And I legitimately fear that Iraq will collapse into chaos.  If things get worse in Iraq during the middle of the pull-out, Mr. Obama would not be able to reverse his decision- otherwise he will be viewed as indecisive and weak.  There would be no political will for a new “surge.”  This issue alone could ruin his presidency in a very short time, as people would ultimately blame him for the chaos.

2. Pursue a Right to Choose Act, codifying the right to abortion into national law.  At various points, Mr. Obama said this would be his first act as president. If the left is going to keep the decision of Roe v. Wade, they know leaving it in the courts is a precarious position.  Signing it into law is a much more lasting approach.  Should Mr. Obama try to do this, I envision 10s of thousands of protesters on the national mall in advance of the vote.  This will damage Democratic prospects going forward in more conservative regions of the country.  Ultimately, it could undermine Mr. Obama’s presidency.

3. Repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act: this would be a lightening rod issue.  With the repeal of this act, a nationwide reopening of the homosexual marriage debate will ensue.  Liberals in state legislatures around the country will seek to pass laws, codifying homosexual marriages.  Again, this will stoke the conservative movement and divide the country, tearing down Mr. Obama’s approval ratings.

4. Repeal the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy in the military.  Again, here is a lightening rod political issue.  Many in the military were frustrated when this policy was enacted.  To repeal it and make open homosexuality the norm in the military will again rankle conservatives and military types.  Some believe this will destroy the fabric of the military. This may not be as explosive as the other points, but it will nonetheless cause an enormous stir. 

5. Pass the Fairness Act, mandating that media outlets present a “fair” two-sided view of every political issue.  This will damage conservative talk radio.  No doubt this will stoke a conservative base who listens incessantly to Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and others. Being divisive would again undermine one of the core platforms of Mr. Obama’s campaign – that he is the post-partisan president.

It’s not certain which of these Mr. Obama will pursue.  He may ultimately not pursue any- in my view, he would be wise to avoid them.  But it is easy to imagine that if he pursues any (or all!) of them, then his image as a post-partisan politician will quickly fade as the country descends into highly partisan political debate and rankling.  A conservative movement that was beaten down by the failures of George Bush will suddenly be reenergized.  Further, this will confirm all of the fears that Republicans have planted in conservative minds about the consequences of liberal dominance of the federal government.

To Barack Obama I say: do not do it! You were elected largely because of the economy and people’s rejection of the divisiveness of George Bush. You will do well to focus on the economy in your first term and not overplay your hand on the issues that will risk our national security or ultimately divide us.