American Missive

ATLANTA – The news has broken today- Collin Powell has finally endorsed Barack Obama.  Calling the possibility of an African-American president “electrifying” and highlighting what he perceives to be a major gap between the two candidates in terms of judgment and vision for our country, Mr. Powell has sided with Barack Obama. For many pundits, this is the christening moment- with this endorsement, the planning for Obama parties can begin.  For months, they have predicted that Mr. Powell’s endorsement of either candidate would end this election.  They believe that he holds enough respect among average Americans to sway their vote and end a tight race.  For conservatives and Republicans hearing this news, this only confirms their long-held suspicisons of Mr. Powell.  While respected, he has had a difficult history with conservatives, as many have believed he has long held a bias towards the other side.  All told, he has made his choice and it will most likely have a big impact on the outcome of this race.  But even with this considered, if the current polls hold up, then we are on the precipice of electing one of the most inexperienced candidates in the last 100 years. 

 As recently as last week, a WHOPPING 57% of voters told Gallup that they were either very or somewhat concerned that Barack Obama does not have the requisite experience to be our president.  Simultaneously, 84% of them told Gallup that they believe the challenges facing our nation are more serious than any new president has faced in the least 50 years.  Unbelievable!  Based on these findings, I decided to spend some time myself revisiting Mr. Obama’s experience- since he may well be my next president.

I count myself solidly among that 84%.  We are in a once-in-a-century economic crisis that has spread like cancer into every sector of the US and global economy.   No one is immune to the reaches of what could very seriously be a long-term recession.  Further, we are witnessing a resurgent Russia, who is making aggressive moves to strengthen its ties with Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran and to reassert its hegemony over the fledgling democracies of Eastern Europe. We are also in the middle of a two-front war against terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan.  And rogue states like Iran and North Korea continue to seek nuclear weapons.

Because Barack Obama is poised to be my next president, I decided to take a Saturday morning and cruise around Wikipedia.com, checking out past presidents and presidential candidates.  My goal was to see how many of them had as little experience as Mr. Obama and to see how those presidents and/or candidates faired, both in the election and in their subsequent terms in office.  The results of my studies were fascinating.  They are summarized below.

As is well known, Mr. Obama is the junior senator from Illinois.  He had been in office approximately 1 year prior to pursuing a run at the presidency (maybe 2 years, if you stretch it).  In performing my analysis, I was gracious.  I considered anyone who had one full term or less in Congress prior to running for the presidency to be equivalent to Mr. Obama in experience (even though one full term would technically exceed that of Mr. Obama).

I also considered the following experiences to exceed those of Mr. Obama:

1. Having served 1 term or more as President (obviously)
2. Having served 1 term or more as Vice-President
3. Having significant military experience
4. Having served 1 term or more as Governor of a state or a US territory
5. Having served as a Majority Leader of either house of Congress
6. Having served multiple successive terms in Congress

I think my criteria above were fair.  I certainly welcome disagreement.  I have noticeably excluded factors I could have included, such as significant executive experiences in the private sector (which Mr. Obama also lacks).  Please tell me if you disagree with any of this.

At the bottom of this missive is a table summarizing the results of my analysis. Consider who I found in the last 100 years who had experience roughly consistent with that of Mr. Obama.  This is frightening.  These men either (thankfully) were unable to convince the public they were qualified and thus lost the election or they served a term in the presidency and that term was considered a failure (or worse!). Mr. Obama therefore is running against fairly substantial, negative historical precedents.  Based on my readings of these men’s backgrounds, you could argue that any of these guys may have had more experience than Mr. Obama (though I will not get into that here).

Look at this list:

1. Thomas Dewey- Republican nominee, 1944 – Lost to FDR. By the time he ran again in 1948 and lost to Harry Truman, he had served a full term as the Governor of New York.

2. Wendell Wilkie- Republican nominee, 1940 – Lost to FDR.

3. Herbert Hoover – Republican President, 1928 – 1932. He was blamed for disastrous economic policies during an economic downturn that were blamed for bringing on the Great Depression. Similar to Mr. Obama’s desires, he increased taxes and pursued protectionism with respect to international trade.

4. John Davis – Democratic nominee, 1924 – Lost to Calvin Coolidge.

5. Warren G Harding – Republican President, 1920 – 1924. Was a mediocre president who, similar to Mr. Obama, was wildly popular during the 1920 election for his “presidential looks” and his rousing, populist speeches.  His presidency was clouded in corruption and incompetence. At one point he even confessed to an aide that he was not qualified for the office.  He died prior to completing his term.

6. William Jennings Bryan – Democratic nominee, 1908 – Lost to William Howard Taft.

Look how many years it has been since we have even had someone so inexperienced running for president!  And look how miserably mediocre these people were as politicians and political leaders.

Now, of course, many people who read this will say: but George Bush had “experience” and has himself been a disaster.  That’s certainly worthy for debate.  But last I checked, George Bush isn’t running for office.  However, Mr. Obama is- and he is winning.  Further, when you look at the thin history of inexperienced presidents and presidential candidates, the facts are pretty grim.  It doesn’t look like those men were able to hack it and I have my doubts about Mr. Obama too. The reason I have doubts?  I have nothing on which to base an expectation that Mr. Obama could be a good leader in a crisis- nothing from his history even remotely suggests that to me.

Further, many people (including Mr. Powell himself) have lambasted John McCain for selecting Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential nominee.  They continue to pillory her for her inexperience.   But look who they are voting for instead!  One of the least experienced candidates in THE LAST 100 YEARS.  Further, Mrs. Palin is not running to be our president- John McCain is and he has a wealth of experience.  Many people had the same fear in the 1950’s when Dwight D. Eisenhower selected Richard Nixon (then 39 years old) as his running mate, despite Mr. Eisenhower’s advancing age.  None of the worries of Mr. Nixon’s inexperience at the time ever came to fruition- he was a vice president and his role was limited.  But my concerns about the implications of Mr. Obama’s inexperience could very well come to fruition- after all, he will be our president.

Barack Obama is a man who has never been tested in leadership; never had to make an executive decision; never had to make a principled, decisive stand in the face of adversity and uncertainty for any major governmental or private organization.  He has given us policies and indicators of what he might do as president. But then throughout this campaign, Mr. Obama has repeatedly shifted and altered his policies to be more politically palatable.  An extreme liberal who would talk to leaders of rogue states without preconditions at the start of the race, Mr. Obama is now a military hawk who would invade nuclear-armed Pakistan if he thought he had even a chance of nabbing Bin Laden. Does anyone know what this guy stands for? Mr. Obama himself may not.  Knowing what you stand for comes from experience.

I am being asked by Mr. Powell and a growing majority of pundits and American voters to accept on blind faith that Mr. Obama has within him an innate and impeccable leadership ability that will lead our nation out of crisis, even though he has never been tested nor ever held a position to demonstrate to me this ability.  I cannot do it- I see nothing in his record or background that suggests to me that he has this ability.  Just words and speeches and a cool detachment in the middle of a televised debate. 

No – I cannot do it. Not in this hour- not with so much on the line.  This is indeed a major turning point in our history, and I believe a turn towards Mr. Obama will be a turn for the worst.  Mr. McCain- while not perfect- has shown himself repeatedly to be a man of good character and judgment, capable of handling adversity and taking principled stands in the midst of diversity that are good for our country.

This is my strongest missive yet on the topic of my grave concerns about Mr. Obama’s candidacy.  I welcome disagreement and would love to hear your thoughts!

Here is a summary of my analysis on past presidential candidates: