We are in the midst of Al Qaeda efforts to attack the U.S. on a scale as big or larger than 9/11,”
John Brennan , Chief of the Terrorist Threat Integration Center, September 2008
ATLANTA— They are calling it the ”November Surprise.” Newsweek and other outlets have been following a story in recent weeks that could have severe implications for this country and for this world. The US economy is being shaken to its knees by a rampant, unrelenting financial crisis, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average flopping around wildly since the beginning of October. Major institutions, including Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Wachovia, Fortis, Bradford & Bingley and others are collapsing across America and Europe. Meanwhile, Al Qaeda operatives have been flooding to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border for what some are suggesting is a planning meeting akin to those held in Malaysia prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks. What implications might this have for the US election – or beyond?
Barack Obama has claimed repeatedly in debates that Al Qaeda is stronger now than they have been at any point since 2001, but the truth seems to be much mirkier. On the basis of their brutality and their failure to defeat America in Iraq, support for the group has waned throughout the Middle East. Their image has been tarnished. In fact, Asharq Alawsat and other Arabic media outlets have recently reported that members of the Taliban are secretly negotiating with Saudi Arabia to break with Al Qaeda and broker a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Afghanistan. Even these Muslim extremists recognize that the Al Qaeda cannot promise them victory, only misery. Accordingly, these meetings are evidence that Al Qaeda believes they need to reassert themselves as a powerful, meaningful force in the world.
Obviously, this news has frightening implications. I hear this and cringe at the thought of what devestation would occur if such a plot came to fruition. Apart from the massive loss of life (which is horrible in itself!), a pinpoint, coordinated attack on a major western city in the midst of the current fiscal crisis could tip us over the abyss into a full scale panic and economic depression.
The conventional wisdom is that an attack prior to the US election would tip the election in John McCain’s favor. Some prominent Democrats have suggested in recent weeks that this is probably the only way Mr. McCain could win. This is one issue where I again find myself to be the contrarian. I actually think such an attack would further frighten and anger Americans and turn them further away from the Republican party. I think it would remind them that George Bush was never able to bring down Osama Bin Laden, either dead or alive. Also, the more cynical voters would be apt to believe that an attack may even have been orchestrated by Mr. Bush or Republicans to keep control of the country. Mr. McCain is closest to Mr. Bush on his foreign policy and would suffer the fall-out. In my view, I think Mr. Obama would benefit yet again from such an event, particularly since his ticket has been bolstered by Joe Biden’s foreign policy credentials.
However, this does bring up an interesting line of thought. What happens if the attack does not occur in November, but sometime next year, after Mr. Obama has won. Suppose it occurs after Mr. Obama begins his much discussed withdrawal from Iraq. What would the public reaction be then? This thought has occurred to me several times throughout this election cycle, so I thought I’d post my considerations here. I would be curious to hear your reactions!
First, there is some small chance that Mr. Obama’s presidency may be a good recruiting tool for Al Qaeda. In an angle of reporting on Mr. Obama that has interestingly not received much national attention, Barack Obama may be viewed as a Muslim apostate in many parts of the conservative Muslim world. Mr. Obama’s father was Muslim and in traditional Islamic societies, Barack Hussein Obama himself would therefore be viewed as a Muslim. His frequent public statements describing his conversion to Christianity could be used against him. Many traditional Muslims believe the death penalty is appropriate for apostates under Islamic Sharia law. How strong an appeal to young extremists would it be to say Al Qaeda can attack the great Satan in its moment of weakness while it is being led by a Muslim apostate? I am not sure this will play a significant role but could nonetheless be a side-story throughout his presidency.
Second, were an attack to occur, I shudder to consider the significant number of Americans here at home that may actually turn strongly against Mr. Obama in such a case. I have worried that the public outrage could be significant enough to destablize his government. Even after a year and a half of campaigning, there are still a significant number of Americans who do not trust Mr. Obama and have doubts about what they perceive to be his “shadowy” background. Remember how many conspiracy theorists pinned 9/11 on Mr. Bush, saying he knew about it before it happened? How much easier would conspiracy theories about Mr. Obama be to sell in the event of a major attack, particularly if it were to occur after withdrawing from Iraq and publicly discarding the Bush approach to the war on terror. I have always had a hard time believing Americans would readily rally around Mr. Obama in the event of such a tragedy, as they did for George Bush. I believe that unfortunately, there is still much deep seated suspicion of Mr. Obama’s motives. This consideration I unfortunately think could be much more likely than the previous one.
At any rate, I am optimistic these recent terror reports are just noise and that these considerations will be largely irrelevant. There have been many similar scares since 9/11 that have not come to fruition. Hopefully this will be something none of us has to confront!
TennesseePaul
Stephen VanNuys
Brooklyn Daniel
The Freedom Thinker
What a turn-around for American Missive. Back on 10/4 I got taken- to-task by you guys for saying Obama was a Muslim. I don’t know what planet you were living on at the time but around here everybody I know who was interested knew about it. Not only are you now saying it but are quite correctly pointing out the “Muslim apostate” label could cause a major international incident should he win. The only people who still have their head in the sand is the news media and they’ll stone-wall it right to the bitter end. They know they would look pretty stupid if they admitted they were wrong now. Even more stupid, I should say.
But don’t think this is going to keep Obama from winning the election. He’ll be getting the vote of at least 98% of African-Americans. This is the first time, and maybe the last time for awhile, they can vote for a minority and they aren’t going to let it pass—even if he is a Socialist Arab Muslim. He’ll also get about 80% of the Hispanic vote; 75% of the youth vote; and 100% of the Jewish vote (it’s against their religion to vote for a Republican). Then you add in all the mush-brained liberals and you have an easy win for Obama. I’ve accepted it and I am at peace.
As you can tell, political-correctness is not one of my hang-ups.
Here’s a very good essay on the Obama “Muslim apostate” situation.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0519/p09s02-coop.html?page=1
JustShowsToGoYa: I didn’t mean to “take you to task” over your comments. But I still don’t think Mr. Obama is a Muslim. I’m of the opinion that to be a Muslim he would have to currently practice Islam, and most certainly could not claim Christianity as his religion. I could follow an argument that he was born by a Muslim father, but after a conversion to a new religion he would cease being Muslim.
However, in Islamic law an individual who leaves Islam for another religion would be an Appostate. This would include those who were born into the Religion. But when the child grows up he can leave the respective religion and can no longer be called of that religion. If a child grows up in a Christian home and then converts to Hinduism and unappologetically rejects Christ, he can no longer be called a Christian. It is for this reason that I do not think Barack Obama is a Muslim, even if he still has his name. Christianity never required a name change, or in the case of Judaism circumcision.
Perhaps this is because of my Christian worldview. I don’t see a person who converts to Christianity as still a member of their former religion. I cannot personally attest to the sincerity of his relationship with Christ, but I must take him at his word and judge him by his works.
But as for the Arab part, your genetic math the other day showed he was more Not-Arab than Arab. But personally I wouldn’t care what line he comes from, America is made up of many many different nations. I’m pretty impressed with Piyush “Bobby” Jindal in Louisana and he is of Indian decent (the country, not the native). And more so than Mr. Obama is of Arab decent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mr. Jindal run for President in 2012 as a Republican. But I would be very surprised to see African-American voters vote for him simply because he is a minority (smaller miinority than African-Americans). And in the case of Mr. Jindal some might come out and say he is Hindu, but he left that religion in High School. He is now a Catholic.
At any rate I disagree with Mr. Obama based on his stand on various issues, classwarfare, abortion, etc.
The thing is, TP, while both our Christian worldviews are largely the same, it doesn’t mean anything to the billions of Muslims out there. We have a tradition of tolerance and freedom of religion and we find it hard to understand the super-strict Muslim way. If you’re born of a Muslim father then you are a Muslim, period. There is no option to change at any age. As far as they are concerned, Obama is a Muslim apostate. If he becomes Commander in Chief and orders an attack on fellow Muslims, that’s when the you-know-what hits the fan. Al Qaeda’s numbers swell to unimaginable numbers spanning the entire Middle East and we get hammered from every side—militarily and economically. At the same time, U.S. armed forces enlistments will evaporate. The troopers who have to patrol the back alleys of Baghdad require a lot more inspiring leadership than the average college sophomore who wants more financial aid. Obama doesn’t have it; especially when he has a connection to the very enemy they’re fighting. If Obama wins, like everybody is saying, I can’t see anything but bad news ahead.
As for Mr. Jindal, I wish him all the luck in the world. I don’t know much about the Hindu religion but I think they are much more tolerant than Muslims and I would be very much surprised to hear of any comments. Besides, I haven’t heard of us being involved in any cultural wars with the Hindus. Catholics are OK, too; especially since half my family are one.
Justshowstogoya: Great discussion! And great link to that article, btw. That really explains well what I have been reading about this issue of Mr. Obama’s “apostacy.” It will be very interesting (and perhaps scary, as you predict) to see how this plays out, if Mr. Obama should win.
Thanks for posting and continuing to come out and read our site. We will have much more on Mr. Obama to come in these remaining few weeks of the election.
We are going to attempt to get out some of our “predictions” for Mr. Obama’s presidency. Like you, we have extreme reservations about it. We are curious to document them here to see if they will truly play out should he take office.
JustShowsToGoYa: I see what you are saying about the strict Muslim faith. But at the same time it is impossible to be an apostate and a current member of the faith you are acused of apostizing. I agree the Islamic world may well see him as a former member of their faith who deserves death for abandoning the faith, but this is different than saying Mr. Obama is currently a Muslim. Apostasy is the formal religious disaffiliation or abandonment or renunciation of one’s religion. So he can’t simultaneously be called a Muslim as well as a Muslim Apostate. That’s all I’m trying to say.
But I do see the trouble this causes. His perceived Islamic apostacy by the Muslim world means he is a giant target. A lightening rod.